⚠️ The Surprising Truth About Threats
Here’s something that might surprise many: when someone sends you a direct threat, they will probably not act on it. That sounds counterintuitive, especially as most security professionals assume direct threats are strong indicators of danger.
One of the key lessons I learned from Dr Robert Fein, co-author of the US Secret Service’s Exceptional Case Study Project, when I was investigating threats to MPs, was this:
Direct threats are a weak indicator of physical violence.
But there’s one critical exception — and it can be a matter of life and death.
❤️ When the Threat Is Personal
If a threat comes from someone you’re in or have been in an intimate relationship with, take it seriously. In domestic or personal contexts, threats are far more likely to lead to physical attacks. That’s the contra-indicator that flips the risk entirely.
🕵️ What Dangerous People Actually Do
When I worked in the UK Parliament after the murder of Jo Cox MP, we quickly learned this:
The loudest voices weren’t always the most dangerous.
The quiet escalations, the odd fixations, and the increasingly desperate tones told the real story.
The person who keeps coming back, knows things they shouldn’t, and can’t let go of a perceived injustice — that’s where the danger lies.
🔍 Spot the Real Warning Signs
1. Watch for Fixation
- Repeated contact from the same person.
- References to private or personal information they shouldn’t know (your calendar, family, movements).
- Someone who believes they have a relationship with you when they don’t.
🟦 Clue: “I keep writing because you owe me a reply.” — persistence mixed with entitlement.
2. Listen for Desperation
- Phrases like “I’ve got no other options”, “this is my last chance”, or “I’m at the end of my tether.”
- Strange or escalating demands, often involving money or attention.
- Someone who sees you as their only solution — that’s a dangerous focus.
🟨 Clue: “If you don’t help, I don’t know what I’ll do.” — hopelessness turning into risk.
3. Spot the Escalation
- Mentions of turning up somewhere or specific plans.
- References to weapons, violence, or revenge.
- Increasing anger, hate, or emotional volatility.
🟥 Critical Red Flags: Mentions of homicide or suicide need immediate professional intervention.
4. Notice the Odd and the Troubling
- Unusual or bizarre communications — religious fixations, sexual aggression, violent fantasies.
- Strong feelings of grievance or injustice, especially when directed at you.
💬 Trust your instincts. If it feels wrong, it probably is.
🧠 Trust Your Gut — It’s Usually Right
Your intuition evolved over millions of years to spot danger. Don’t talk yourself out of it.
If something feels off, don’t try to manage it alone. Instead, pass it on to your security team or a threat management professional.
The earlier you act, the more options you have to stay safe.
Most worrying communications won’t become dangerous — but the ones that do will always show these patterns.
📋 Want the Complete Checklist?
I’ve created a Communications of Concern Checklist that helps you assess threatening or concerning messages.
👉 Email: [email protected]
📎 Subject: “Send me the checklist”
💡 I’ll send it straight to your inbox — and if you’re not already subscribed, I’ll also add you to the Defuse Global Newsletter so you receive future insights, checklists, and threat awareness briefings automatically.💡
🧭 Stay Alert. Stay Safe. Feel Safer.
Philip Grindell MSc CSyP
Founder & CEO, Defuse Global
We help prominent people feel safer in their public and private lives
