Last week, Mexico’s President, Claudia Sheinbaum, was groped during a routine walkabout. A drunk man got close enough to grab her, touch her chest, and attempt to kiss her before security reacted.
No weapon. No plan. Just access, timing, and predictability.
Days earlier, Ariana Grande was grabbed at the Wicked: For Good premiere in Singapore. A man broke through the red-carpet cordon before anyone stopped him. Red carpets feel safe because they look controlled.
They’re not. They’re predictable.
The GlitterGate incident at the Labour Party Conference followed the same script.
Then there are the cases where predictability turns fatal.
☠️ When routine becomes fatal
In December 2024, Brian Thompson — CEO of UnitedHealthcare — was shot dead outside his hotel. The attacker waited for Thompson’s morning routine: the same time, the same place, the same pattern. Thompson’s wife told investigators he’d been receiving threats. But complacency set in.
The shooter’s gun jammed three times. He calmly cleared it and kept firing.
That’s how much time predictability buys a hostile individual.
🎯 I’ve used predictability myself — because it works
In my policing days, I tracked wanted offenders by their habits. Sunday lunch at mum’s, the same café, the regular gym session — these patterns gave me the moment I needed.
If I could use predictable behaviour lawfully, hostile individuals would exploit it for darker reasons.
When I ran Parliament’s investigative team, MPs travelled in fixed patterns — the same train, at the same time, on the same route. Getting them to vary their journeys removed the certainty that offenders seek.
🕶️ The hostile actor hiding in plain sight
The greatest threats don’t announce themselves. They observe. They wait. They blend in.
That regular protestor outside your building? He hasn’t caused trouble yet, so security assumes he’s harmless.
The familiar face in the lobby? Nobody challenges them anymore.
Complacency creates openings.
You stop seeing the risk because you’ve normalised the presence.
The most significant misunderstanding: believing “no threat” means “no danger.”
Direct threats are poor indicators of genuine intent — yet many security teams wait for one before upgrading protection.
Real offenders rarely announce themselves. If you’re not monitoring who discusses you, what they’re saying, or how their behaviour is shifting, you’re operating blind.
A lack of information didn’t cause the 9/11 intelligence failures — they were caused by an inability to connect separate pieces.
The warnings were there. They weren’t joined up.
Collecting dots is one thing. Connecting them is where the real value lies.
🧩 Your circle creates the vulnerability
Complacency spreads:
- The reception is not challenging visitors.
- Drivers using the same routes.
- Security assumes “he’s here all the time”.
- Regular gym sessions at fixed times.
- The same café, the same table, every lunchtime.
I’ve handled cases where home addresses, children’s schools, and personal routines were all online — shared innocently by staff or relatives. By the time a genuine threat emerges, it’s too late to hide what’s public.
Your security is only as strong as the last decision someone in your circle made.
🔐 What separates professional security from box-ticking
When I deployed to Northern Ireland as a young soldier, my focus was razor-sharp. The challenge was maintaining that focus as I became comfortable with the risk.
The IRA understood this. After the Brighton bombing, they said: “Today we were unlucky, but remember, we only have to be lucky once. You will have to be lucky always.”
They were talking about patience — waiting for the moment your guard drops.
Being proactive means acting before a crisis occurs:
- Installing security systems before burglaries
- Conducting awareness training before incidents
- Running vulnerability audits before threatening messages arrive
It saves money, prevents anxiety, and protects your reputation. Yet even those brilliantly proactive in business often remain reactive about their own safety.
📌 What needs to change
Staying safe means treating personal security with the same discipline you apply to finances and reputation.
For high-profile individuals and high-net-worth families:
✔️ Break predictable routines — vary movements, timings, routes
✔️ Review digital footprint regularly
✔️ Train your entire circle — PAs, drivers, teachers, staff
✔️ Keep vetting active — people and risks change
✔️ Update security when life changes
✔️ Don’t confuse absence of threats with safety — monitor, assess, act
🔻 The bottom line
Across Sheinbaum, Grande, GlitterGate, Thompson, and numerous private cases, the pattern is identical:
- The offender didn’t require sophistication
- The routine created the opportunity
- Familiarity caused teams to relax
- The psychological impact was immediate
- Simple, proactive changes would have blocked it
Hostile actors only need one lucky moment.
Your job — and mine — is to make sure they never get it.
